Key drivers of the rising demand include new trade agreements, major energy projects, and AI‑driven investments in the expansion of data centres. The latest edition of the Business Confidence Index was produced in cooperation with ICISA (International Credit Insurance & Surety Association) for the first time. This collaboration provides an even more comprehensive insight into export credit and political risk insurance, and additionally covers trade credit insurance.
The Berne Union (BU) recently published the Business Confidence Index for Q1 2026. It was produced together with ICISA, the International Credit Insurance & Surety Association.
Important results at a glance
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The BU members surveyed expect global demand for export credit and political risk insurance to increase in the first half of 2026.
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Key drivers of this development include bilateral trade agreements, large‑scale energy projects, and the expansion of data centres fuelled by investment in AI and supporting infrastructure. Growing interest from exporters in higher‑risk markets — and the resulting need for additional insurance cover — is also strengthening demand.
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Demand for medium‑ and long‑term (MLT) cover remains stable, according to expert assessments. It is supported primarily by the defence, energy transition, and critical minerals sectors. At the same time, rising sovereign debt in Africa continues to pose a major risk, while US policy shifts placing renewables and tariff-exposed sectors under closer monitoring..
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The outlook is dampened mainly by uncertainty surrounding future tariffs. In addition, rising insolvency forecasts and pressure on oil prices due to the Iran conflict represent the main risks for claims expectations.
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As Austria's official Export Credit Agency OeKB has been a member of the Berne Union (BU) since 1954. In the BU, OeKB represents the interests of the Austrian export industry by, among other things, monitoring the development of competitors, discussing ideas for innovations in products and processes, coordinating the approach to joint projects with other ECAs and concluding cooperation agreements.
About the Business Confidence Index
The BU’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021, with the aim of providing a continuous indicator of the overall perception of demand, risk appetite and claims in the export credit insurance industry. The index is based on quarterly snapshots of BU Members’ assessment of their current and imminent business situation with respect to these factors.
From 2026 onwards, the Business Confidence Index will be published in cooperation with ICISA (International Credit Insurance & Surety Association). This collaboration provides an even more comprehensive picture of the export credit and political risk insurance market, now further expanded to include the trade credit insurance segment.
