Demand for medium- and long-term export credit cover is expected to increase significantly in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include investment in energy, industry, defence, and AI infrastructure. This is shown by the latest Business Confidence Index published by the Berne Union and ICISA.
The Berne Union (BU) and the International Credit Insurance & Surety Association (ICISA), the international association representing private credit insurers, have published the latest Business Confidence Index for the second half of 2026. The results point to a positive outlook for demand, particularly for medium- and long-term cover.
Important results at a glance
- Record demand for export credit and political risk insurance: Despite business volumes already being at record levels, respondents expect demand for medium- and long-term export credit insurance to increase significantly.
- Positive outlook for short-term business: Expectations for short-term business have fallen somewhat compared with the first half of the year, but remain positive. Key drivers include rising export volumes and heightened risk perception.
- Strategic sectors drive demand: Longer-term export credit cover is particularly sought after in the energy, industrial and defence sectors. Investments in AI, data centres and the associated energy infrastructure are also generating new business in short-term credit insurance.
- Claims expectations rise slightly: Following an exceptionally benign claims environment, respondents expect claims to return towards more normal levels. Key factors influencing the outlook include the economic consequences of the Iran-US conflict and high levels of sovereign debt in parts of Africa.
Download the full report here:
As Austria's official Export Credit Agency, OeKB has been a member of the Berne Union (BU) since 1954. In the BU, OeKB represents the interests of the Austrian export industry by, among other things, monitoring international developments, discussing ideas for product innovations, coordinating the approach to joint projects with other Export Credit Agencies and concluding cooperation agreements.
About the Business Confidence Index
The Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) was launched in 2021 to provide a continuous indicator of the industry’s assessment of expected demand and claims. Since 2026, the BCI has been produced jointly with ICISA, providing a more comprehensive picture that covers not only export credit and investment insurance, but also the wider trade credit insurance market. The index is now based on a half-yearly survey of members and distinguishes between short-term (ST) and medium- and long-term (MLT) risks.
