The Business Confidence Index for the first quarter shows robust demand for short-term export credit insurance and a stable trend for longer-tenor coverage. Geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainties and economic pressure cast a shadow over the claims outlook.
The Berne Union (BU) recently published the Business Confidence Index for Q1 2025.
Important results at a glance
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The BU members surveyed have a strong confidence in rising demand for short-term export credit insurance. This will be driven by global trade growth, projected to grow at its fastest pace since 2021.
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According to the experts, demand for longer-term coverage remains stable. Demand here is primarily supported by defence transactions, especially in Europe, and the growing need for infrastructure projects in developing countries.
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The geopolitical risk remains a primary concern for potential short term claims. The potential threat of tariffs is increasing uncertainty, alongside the European automotive sector, grappling with weak demand for electric vehicles, Chinese competition and factory closures.
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Claims expectations under longer-tenor coverage show little change. Sovereign debt risk remains a persistent concern for emerging claims, particularly in Western Africa.
Download the full report here:
As Austria's official Export Credit Agency OeKB has been a member of the Berne Union (BU) since 1954. In the BU, OeKB represents the interests of the Austrian export industry by, among other things, monitoring the development of competitors, discussing ideas for innovations in products and processes, coordinating the approach to joint projects with other ECAs and concluding cooperation agreements.
About the Business Confidence Index
The BU’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021, with the aim of providing a continuous indicator of the overall perception of demand, risk appetite and claims in the export credit insurance industry. The index is based on quarterly snapshots of BU Members’ assessment of their current and imminent business situation with respect to these factors.
