The Business Confidence Index for the 4th quarter shows that the members of the Berne Union continue to expect increasing demand for export credit insurance.

Business Confidence Index Q4/2022 published

The Berne Union (BU) recently published the Business Confidence Index for Q4. The BU’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021, with the objective to provide a continuous indicator of the overall perception of demand, risk appetite and claims in the export credit insurance industry.  The index is based on quarterly snapshots of BU Members’ assessment of their current and imminent business situation with respect to these factors. 

Important results at a glance

  • BU members expect continued growth in demand for credit and political risk coverage.
  • Risk appetite overall remaines subdued.
  • Short-term credit has seen strong growth in demand throughout 2022, and while this is expected to continue into the final quarter of the year, the rate will drop considerably, in line with an expected slowdown in merchandise trade growth and commodity inflation.
  • Demand for medium to long-term cover – which has remained flat since Q2 – is also expected to pick up in the last quarter of the year with indications of a strong pipeline.
  • The payment difficulties reported through Q3 are now expected to translate into higher claims paid in 4Q 2022 and 2023.

About Berne Union

The Berne Union (BU) is the international association of private and public export credit and investment insurers. The 83 members together insure around 14% of global cross-border trade. OeKB has been a member of the BU since 1954. In the BU, OeKB represents the interests of the Austrian export industry by, among other things, observing the development of the competition, discussing ideas for innovations in products and processes, coordinating the approach to joint projects with other export credit agencies and concluding cooperation agreements.