29.08.2024

The Business Confidence Index for the second quarter shows that the members of the Berne Union are cautiously optimistic about the second half of the year. Economic and geopolitical uncertainties are leading to a sustained to slightly increasing demand for export credit insurance. Members signal that opportunities for growth lie in supporting SMEs and investment in renewables and the green transition.

The Berne Union (BU) recently published the Business Confidence Index for Q2. 

Important results at a glance

  • Demand is expected to increase slightly in the second half of the year, both short-term export credit insurance and longer-tenor cover.

  • Export credit and investment insurers see opportunities for growth above all in business with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as in investments in renewable energies and the green transformation.

  • BU members expect claims to increase in the short-term segment and decrease in the medium/long-term segment. 

  • Geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic uncertainties remain major challenges. 

    • Russia-Ukraine, the Middle East, Egypt and Argentina are regions they are most watchful of. Several countries remain on members’ watchlist as risks remain elevated due to a delicate financial situation, in particular Sub-Saharan African countries, including Kenya and Ghana as well as Sri Lanka and Pakistan in South Asia.

    • Construction and consumer goods are the sectors being closely monitored.

As Austria's official Export Credit Agency OeKB has been a member of the BU since 1954. In the BU, OeKB represents the interests of the Austrian export industry by, among other things, monitoring the development of competitors, discussing ideas for innovation in products and processes, coordinating the approach to joint projects with other ECAs and concluding cooperation agreements.

About the Business Confidence Index

The BU’s Business Confidence Index was launched in 2021, with the aim of providing a continuous indicator of the overall perception of demand, risk appetite and claims in the export credit insurance industry.  The index is based on quarterly snapshots of BU members’ assessment of their current and future business situation with respect to these factors.